Byron York, apparatchik to the damned.
It’s the states, particularly Ohio, that really matter, argues New York Times poll analyst (and former DailyKos blogger) Nate Silver. “Mr. Obama is the favorite [in Ohio],and because of Ohio’s central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election,” Silver wrote Saturday....
Team Romney believes there is a fairly close relationship between the national polls and the polls in Ohio. Romney aides are highly skeptical of any results from Ohio that are several points out of line with the national polls. For example, if Romney is up two nationally, they would find it very hard to believe a poll that shows him down by five in Ohio — to them, that seven-point gap just seems too big.
Right....
You know, pull the other one, it's got bells on.
This "national poll/state poll" stuff is amusing, but based on nonsense. There's lots of Ohio polling data, and it's all far more likely to be correct than national data. I only got a B- in my BA stats class, but I'm kinda sure that the math backs me up here.
And even with the national data, Romney is not up by 2.
If Silver's forecast holds up, and Rasmussen & Gallup's numbers don't change, this ought to be kind of a big deal, though -- that would be two major firms embarrassed. As it is Gallup looks very much an outlier.
But what the hell do I know?