Since Barack Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and moved into a front-running position for the general presidential election in early June, he has seen his standing versus John McCain improve among voters in red states, blue states, and competitive (or purple) states. Obama has gained at least 3 points in the Obama-McCain gap in all three state groupings compared with voter sentiments in March through May.
But that was before the GOP and all of Greater Wingnuttia began waving tire gauges around. That should be a game-changer.
Or not. From Gallup:
The three percentage point advantage for Obama matches the average since early June, when Obama clinched the number of delegates needed to head to the Democratic convention as the presumptive presidential nominee. Since then, Obama has never trailed McCain among registered voters, though McCain has tied Obama five times during this span, including Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports for last Friday and Saturday.
In other words, the race is remarkably stable. I'm going to go with the simple explanation why: most people have made up their minds already. One result of the long Dem primaries is that Obama is not an unknown quantity, and McCain has been around forever. The conventions will put everything up in the air again, but when they settle, it's Obama by 3-6.