It is just not all that complicated.
The Democratic Party is quite obviously deluded in a highly annoying fashion: don't make deals with crazy people is a basic life principle and they'd damned well better start remembering it: and Bush is far more a mad dog right now than a mere crazy person. On the war, Bush needs to be told "stop it." Now. In no uncertain terms. Electorally, 2008 is going to be about Iraq, Iraq, and Iraq, and the American people (not to mention the Iraqi people) want this senseless occupation over. Yesterday. Those who oppose the war will win. Those who get wishy-washy in the face of the Bright Paper Werewolves of this fake-tough, discredited, disliked, and dismal administration will lose. It's a matter of smart politics, as well as a matter of principle.
The only good news in all this is that the GOP is just as deluded about 2008 as the Democrats. To wit:
House Republicans have a fairly simple plan to reclaim the majority: Blame Nancy.
The National Republican Congressional Committee launches its first national advertising blitz Thursday with a drive to tie freshmen Democrats to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
The GOP's cash-strapped campaign arm will launch a mix of radio ads and automated phone calls targeting 18 freshman Democrats for allegedly marching in lockstep with the speaker, a California Democrat who is regularly depicted by Republicans as an out-of-touch liberal....
The targets include Reps. Nancy Boyda of Kansas, Christopher P. Carney of Pennsylvania, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Brad Ellsworth of Indiana, Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Steve Kagen of Wisconsin, Tim Mahoney of Florida, Jerry McNerney of California, Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire, Heath Shuler of North Carolina and Timothy J. Walz of Minnesota.
According to a script, the ad (there are two versions, depending on whether the targeted member voted for the Democrats' budget) opens with Pelosi's speech last November declaring the country had "voted for Democrats to take our country in a new direction."
The announcer goes on to assail the speaker and the featured members for paving "the way for one of the largest tax hikes in American history" and approving "outrageous pork-barrel spending on peanut storage and transporting tropical fish."
The announcer also takes a shot at Pelosi for her recent trip to Syria before closing, "Well, Speaker Pelosi ... we'd hate to see what's coming next."
The GOP has no credibility at all on "outrageous pork barrel spending," nobody but the wingnuts and punditry gives a shit about the Syria nonsense, and 2008 is not going to be about Pelosi: it's going to be about Iraq. All any of these Democratic "targets" need say is: "Outrageous spending? How much have we spent on a failed war that's destroyed our international standing for no good reason, failed to do anything to solve the problem of terrorism and indeed made it worse, and diverted much needed funds from the real needs of American citizens?" And that's it.
Whether or not they'll actually say it, well, that's another story.
But they'd fucking better if they know what's good for them.
And this goes double for anyone running for president as a Democrat. Pledge to end the war and mean it, or no votes for you, much less money. And if you don't end it, well then, one term for you.
Period.