by flory
Ambinder thinks Palin is the natural frontrunner for the GOP nomination in 2012.
Think ahead to 2010...2011...2012.
Palin is ambitious. Very ambitious.
And if she wants the job, she's easily the frontrunner to become THE voice of the angry Right in the Wilderness. She is a favorite of talk radio and Fox News conservatives, and speaks their language as only a true member of the club can.
Jeez, can we get through Nov 4 first?
No question Palin is ambitious, and, as Ambinder points out:
Palin is an enormously talented politician. When she knows what she's talking about, or even when she knows enough to fake it, she is very, very appealing, and very good at redirecting questions to whatever her message is.
The key phrase there is "when she knows what she's talking about". She comes across as a skillful politician to Alaskans because she grew up there and has a firm grasp of the issues that matter to them. So she doesn't have to fumble around repeating the question or the questioner's name just to run out the clock.
But does that translate to political prowess on a national level? Ambinder thinks she's got plenty of time to become fluent on national issues. But that presupposes some degree of curiosity about national issues. A woman who reached her mid-40s without ever having left the United States doesn't strike me as overly invested in matters beyond the quotidian. And we've now had an eight year demonstration of just how little the intellectually incurious can absorb about national policy, even when wading knee deep in it.
Personally, I think Palin's future depends on who wins the war for control of the GOP. Wingnuts may very well come to dominate the nominating process. But they don't have the money. And I don't see her appealing to those who do. She's become a late-night punchline -- Dan Quayle for the 21st century -- who turns off independents and swing voters. She might be able to win a nomination, but she can't win a general election. Corporate Republican interests aren't going to throw their money away on a sure loser.
So here's my completely-out-of-my-ass prediction for Caribou Barbie's future:
She pulls a reverse-McCain.
She dumps the first dude and hooks up with some rich wingnut who can finance her political future. She may even move to Oklahoma or Alabama or some other wingnut friendly state. Then she runs for the Senate in 2010 to keep her name and face in the national spotlight. In 2018 or thereabouts she goes for the gold. She'd still be in her mid-fifties.
