A Leaky Quart of Motor Oil

According to Gallup:

Since Barack Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and moved into a front-running position for the general presidential election in early June, he has seen his standing versus John McCain improve among voters in red states, blue states, and competitive (or purple) states. Obama has gained at least 3 points in the Obama-McCain gap in all three state groupings compared with voter sentiments in March through May.

But that was before the GOP and all of Greater Wingnuttia began waving tire gauges around. That should be a game-changer.

Or not. From Gallup:

The three percentage point advantage for Obama matches the average since early June, when Obama clinched the number of delegates needed to head to the Democratic convention as the presumptive presidential nominee. Since then, Obama has never trailed McCain among registered voters, though McCain has tied Obama five times during this span, including Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports for last Friday and Saturday.

In other words, the race is remarkably stable. I'm going to go with the simple explanation why: most people have made up their minds already. One result of the long Dem primaries is that Obama is not an unknown quantity, and McCain has been around forever. The conventions will put everything up in the air again, but when they settle, it's Obama by 3-6.

Comments

[Me]

Thanks for being a voice of calm and reason. I can hardly read a lot of the lefty blogs these days, so thick is the air with panic and gloom. For fuck's sake, a black man with an Arab-sounding name is leading the presidential race over an old white war hero whom the press has idolized for decades. Many of us would do well to pause and consider this on occasion, rather than wailing about how Obama's not up by 20 points.

[Jay_B]

Amen Me.

[actor212]

Megadittoes, Me, Jay_B

OK, maybe that's the wrong trope here, but you get the point.

I find it remarkable that folks who were stridently pro-Obama in the primaries, warning us Hillaryites how he could wipe the floor with McCain as well as install a truly progressive agenda, seem to be his least staunch supporters as he's moved to the center and not been able to "put away" McCain.

As if campaigns are even run in July and August, much less elections decided!

This is far from over and once the conventions are over and done with, barring a major surprise Swift Boating by the GOP, I don't see Obama doing much of anything but choosing his transition team.

[¡El Gato Negro!]

Agreed.

I reminded of a response which is usually given by NTodd on many a comment thread. It may serve here:

Well, what are you doing about it?

Go work a phone bank, go bug your amigos about getting registered, etc.

[DrDick]

Absolutely. As several people have pointed out over the last couple of days, polls this far out really mean little over all. They are generally more volatile than those closer the election, responding to every little news blip. What is important is the trend line, which as you point out is basically flat.